Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 11.483058 14.122075 17.071250 20.588485 24.645274 29.153883 34.518904
2025-11-30 7.916469 11.330791 15.583235 21.166646 28.195228 36.638026 47.425055
2025-12-07 5.612912 9.144281 13.954463 20.765022 29.918780 41.546280 57.153646
2025-12-14 4.307662 7.867689 13.103999 20.992365 32.160068 46.968628 67.594534
2025-12-21 3.100011 6.389761 11.626227 20.014270 32.495612 49.723616 74.544065
2025-12-28 2.528677 5.774916 11.290182 20.567834 34.915982 55.332082 85.494662
2026-01-04 2.035907 5.160139 10.822265 20.805426 36.813690 60.238488 95.644583
2026-01-11 1.674558 4.693466 10.507694 21.209321 38.934173 65.516966 106.499475
2026-01-18 1.409833 4.350274 10.343781 21.814490 41.368399 71.333833 118.330661
2026-01-25 1.093412 3.789808 9.665298 21.424225 42.128178 74.622021 126.549340
2026-02-01 0.897744 3.456892 9.370806 21.668523 43.917011 79.531248 137.326164
2026-02-08 0.690307 3.013125 8.758462 21.231815 44.484987 82.516954 145.266525
2026-02-15 0.496838 2.535935 8.009556 20.505814 44.613048 85.007380 152.894142
2026-02-22 0.410157 2.363766 7.939189 21.141809 47.240890 91.722910 167.444504
2026-03-01 0.299449 2.036721 7.410478 20.744175 47.921548 95.227212 177.032978
2026-03-08 0.234336 1.846945 7.190069 20.971565 49.770059 100.752877 190.029361
2026-03-15 0.154075 1.513398 6.480180 19.994241 49.200729 102.085886 196.239762
2026-03-22 0.124566 1.415922 6.435200 20.547376 51.671188 108.789864 211.479117
2026-03-29 0.095587 1.290344 6.269631 20.784785 53.510318 114.442531 225.137951
2026-04-05 0.074857 1.195097 6.177569 21.188368 55.707339 120.810117 240.179045
2026-04-12 0.060322 1.128357 6.166251 21.793074 58.355073 128.083351 256.954591
2026-04-19 0.040421 0.974905 5.794236 21.403107 58.856163 131.443721 267.142245
2026-04-26 0.029903 0.892639 5.665908 21.647219 60.732552 137.403038 281.959081